Breaking down the word expert, you get ex — or has been — and spurt — a bit of nothing.
Often, I feel as if I embody that definition when making annual football picks. Only a crazy man, or a sports writer, would be foolish enough to pick the winners of high school football games.
The 2015 season is at hand, and inquiring minds want to know if the fortunes of Crestview High School’s football team will take a positive turn this fall, and if Baker's Gators will continue their winning ways.
So let the madness begin.
Aug. 28
Northview at Crestview: The Class 1A Chiefs have made five consecutive trips to the playoffs, while the Class 6A Bulldogs haven’t tasted the post-season since 2010. Northview usually is one of Florida's more talented small schools. However, in this battle of David and Goliath, I see the giant winning as the Bulldogs open the season with a win.
Baker at Holmes County: The Gators saw their 19-game regular-season winning streak end last season in week 11; they lost to South Walton. Holmes County isn’t South Walton, and Baker has too many weapons for the Blue Devils to stop the Gator attack. Baker Coach Matt Brunson likes to play things close to the vest early in the season, so don’t expect to see Baker run up the score. But the Gators should win easily.
Sept. 4
Mosley at Crestview: The Bulldogs get someone closer to their own size in the second week of the season as they host the Class 5A Dolphins. The question is, do they get someone closer to their own talent level? Mosley should offer a bit more of a challenge for the Bulldogs, but I doubt if the Dolphins slow what should be a high-powered Crestview offense. Bulldogs move to 2-0 with the win.
Blountstown at Baker: The Tigers come calling. Baker’s home opener and Blountstown will present plenty of problems for the Gators. MaxPreps ranks the Tigers number 12 in Class 1A and Baker number 17. Blountstown is athletic, but only has 30 players listed on the roster. If this game was played in late October I might lean toward the Tigers, but it’s not. The first Friday in September the heat at Doug Griffith Memorial Stadium will give Baker the advantage in a close game.
Sept. 11
St. Martins, Miss. at Crestview: St. Martins is a small school out of Ocean Springs, Miss., but the private school usually produces some of the Magnolia State's better football teams. If MaxPreps is to be believed, the Yellow Jackets are the 1549th best team in the country and the Bulldogs are the 1,559th best team, which on a neutral field would give St. Martins a slight advantage. There will be nothing neutral about Jack Foster Stadium as Crestview keeps rolling with a win.
West Gadsden at Baker: This game could get ugly fast. The Panthers lack Baker’s talent and depth. Gator quarterback Jon Beck should have a big first half before enjoying watching the backups play in the second half. Baker wins big.
Sept. 18
Broward International at Crestview: This might be the biggest mismatch favoring the Bulldogs in the last decade. If the running clock could start before the third quarter, it would in this game. The only reason Coach Tim Hatten has for keeping the Bulldog starters in the game past the second quarter is to pad their stats. The Bulldogs match last year’s four wins in their fourth game of the season.
Walton at Baker: Walton running back Azende' Rey is the real deal, and will probably be the most explosive player that Baker sees this season. Walton should could contend for the Class 4A title and is the favorite to win the District 1-4A title. The Gators suffer a rare regular-season loss to the Braves, falling to 3-1.
Sept 25
Pace at Crestview: The District 2-6A Patriots visit Jack Foster Stadium the week before Crestview opens District 3-6A play hosting Choctawhatchee. Pace should test the Bulldogs with a big offensive line and powerful running game that has become the Patriot trademark under veteran Coach Mickey Lindsey. Pace will try to keep the ball out of the hands of Crestview’s play makers, but to no avail as the Bulldogs notch win five on the season
Baker at Rocky Bayou Christian: The Gators will try to rebound from a tough loss to Walton against an always explosive Knight team. Rocky Bayou can put up a lot of points against most teams and could give Baker a scare, but even so, I think the Gators rebound with a win.
Oct. 2
Choctawhatchee at Crestview: A 5-0 Crestview record won’t matter as the Bulldogs take on the Indians in the District 3-6A opener. Choctaw is ranked much higher than Crestview, but each of the last two years' turnovers have led to Bulldog losses to the Indians. Some people would call it an upset if Crestview beats Choctaw. I’m not one of those people. I’m taking Crestview at home.
Jay at Baker: When the Gators and Royals met in the Kickoff Classic in August, nothing was on the line. That all changes in this game, as the winner is almost assured of a spot in the playoffs in the three-team District 1-1A. If things go according to script, Baker will roll big, setting up an Oct. 30 showdown with Northview to decide the district champion. I don’t believe Jay has the manpower to rewrite the script. Baker wins big.
Oct. 9
Crestview at Milton: Crestview leaves Jack Foster Stadium's friendly confines for the first time in the 2015 season to take on the Panthers. Milton has a deep history of championship football teams, but has fallen on hard times the last few years. The Panthers should improve this year, but they still won’t have the talent to stay with the Bulldogs as Crestview wins and improves to 7-0.
South Walton at Baker: The last time the teams met in the regular season, the Seahawks ended Baker’s 20-game regular-season winning streak. South Walton lost several key players off last year’s team that beat Baker, but will still be loaded with talent. How that talent translate into what should be a physical game remains to be seen. The Seahawks represent the beaches of South Walton County. The Gators represent the farmlands of North Okaloosa County. I’m going with the country boys at home as Baker gets a close win.
Oct. 16
Fort Walton Beach at Crestview: If the Bulldogs took care of business against Choctaw, a win over the Vikings would almost assure Crestview of a spot in the playoffs for the first time since 2010. No current Bulldog had made the playoffs in football, but fortunately for Coach Tim Hatten, he has multiple baseball and basketball players that know what it means to win key games. Crestview shines and makes the playoffs with the win.
Baker at Chipley: Chipley’s Tigers will be favored at home, and rightfully so. Chipley usually has size, speed and athleticism. The one thing Chipley won’t have is Baker’s depth. The Tigers will be coming off an open date as the Gators play their eighth straight game. I keep going back and forth on this one and come the middle of October I might pick differently, but for now I’m going with Chipley at home as Baker falls to 6-2.
Oct. 30
Crestview at Niceville: Will the District 3-6A title be on the line when the Bulldogs travel to Niceville the night before Halloween? Can Bulldogs find the magic found at Niceville in 2013? How well will Crestview’s talent match up with that of the Eagles? These questions will be answered on the field with the winner claiming the district championship. Niceville wins a close one to take the district championship, but the Bulldogs should be back in the playoffs.
Baker at Northview: Two years ago, the Gators traveled to Bratt and upset the Chiefs for the first of Baker’s two consecutive district championships. Baker will be coming off an open date and will have plenty of time for Coach Matt Brunson to pull out all the stops. The Chiefs will play in their 10th straight game after playing Walton the week before. All the stars seem to be in alignment for the Gators to win and claim their third straight district championship.
Nov. 6
Crestview at Gulf Breeze: There will be mixed emotions for at least one sideline observer, me. Forty years ago, Crestview traveled to Gulf Breeze and beat the Dolphins in the final regular season game. Look for that ancient history to repeat itself as Crestview wins and should be looking ahead to the playoffs as the Bulldogs finish the regular season 9-1.
Baker at Liberty County: The regular-season finale could feature two Class 1A playoff teams. This is a tough game to pick simply because there isn’t a lot of information on Liberty at this time. That said, I’m going with the Gators because I don’t see the Bulldogs having the defenders to stop Baker’s high-powered offense.
Closing thoughts: Time will tell if Crestview finishes the regular season 9-1 and Baker goes 8-2. The Bulldogs could easily lose between three and five games, but I believe this is the season Tim Hatten turns things around.
I believe Baker could lose two or three more games and still win District 1-1A.
The predictions are in the books, so let the season begin.
This article originally appeared on Crestview News Bulletin: Picking 2015's high school football winners