According to Washington’s political pundits, Donald Trump’s rise is a history-making event that will change American politics and the Republican Party.
To his backers, he is the answer to “politics as usual,” that has failed the middle class and the country.
To his critics, his success is the product of a Tea-Party conservative movement that has run amok.
Some say he is an ultra-conservative and others call him a flaming liberal in sheep’s clothing. So far, he has defied conventional logic. Whatever he is, traditional Washington needs to batten down the hatches; a tornado has come to town.
It has been more than a year since Donald Trump, real estate magnate of New York City and multi-billionaire, declared himself a candidate for president of the United States. Since that date, he has run the most unorthodox campaign in the history of American politics.
There is no reason to repeat his personal attacks on others, his off-the-wall statements, or his advocacy of actions that would violate our Constitution. Those are replayed in column after column in the nation’s newspapers. Repeatedly, the critics have predicted his demise, but in state primary after state primary he proved them wrong. Now, he is the Republican nominee.
Some critics say, “But, he hasn’t served in the military.” It is not without precedence that a president could become commander-in- chief without having served in the military. Neither President Obama nor former President Clinton had a military background.
Still, we assume that an NFL coach will have played the game, that an industrial CEO will have worked in the industry, and the comparisons could go on and on. When the safety of our country is at stake, we don’t like to take chances. Experience is important.
The real question on everyone’s mind — Republicans and Democrats — is, “Could he win? Could the TV reality show star with no political experience and little knowledge of the inner-workings of either the operations of government or U.S. foreign policy actually become our president?
The answer is a resounding yes.
How could he win? The answer to that question is in the history of the past two elections for president, both won by President Obama. The Democrat strategy for winning in 2008 and 2012 focused on the states with the most electoral votes. These included California, New York, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Illinois. In 2012, President Obama won six of the seven major states with the most electoral votes. Candidate Mitt Romney won only Texas of the big seven.
For Trump to win in November he must win at least four of the major seven states.
Can he do it?
That is the question we will ponder until the general election in November. The most likely states to flip to the Republican side are Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Including Texas, if these four were counted in the Republican totals in November it would give Trump a split of the major states. He could pick up the additional votes he needs by holding the states that were won by Romney in 2012.
In votes by states, the 2012 election was very close. Democrats won 26 states to the Republicans’ 24. Should Trump succeed in flipping these three key states and holding the other solid red states, he would have 27 states to the Democrats’ 23. The numbers would be very close, maybe as close as the Gore-Bush race of 2000 that had to be decided by the Supreme Court.
So, can he do it? The answer is a resounding yes. Will he do it? That answer is bound up in his appeal to women, Hispanics and other minorities who vote in larger and larger numbers each time we hold a national election.
Remember that old TV show called “The $64,000 question?” Well, this question is worth significantly more.
The future of our country is riding on the outcome.
Dr. Mark L. Hopkins writes for More Content Now and Scripps Newspapers. Contact him at presnet@presnet.net.
This article originally appeared on Crestview News Bulletin: HOPKINS: Could Trump win?